Budget allocation,national security,military intelligence,and human capital: a dynamic model

This study develops a dynamic model that integrates military intelligence into the defense capability of the country and the optimal allocation of its government budget. We assert that the effectiveness of the country’s military intelligence is contingent on the quality of its human capital, which, in turn, implies a long-term positive relationship between the government’s various civilian expenditures and its capacity to achieve a cost-effective intelligence and, hence, military capability. This relationship is developed within a multiple-period arms race model between two rivals. Using this model and stylized data for the Israeli–Syrian arms race, we show that an appropriate budget shift from defense to civilian expenditures during the initial periods of the planning horizon will gradually (over a decade, say) increase the quality of human capital in the country and, thus, the effectiveness of its intelligence, which, in turn, will increase the country’s future security and welfare.     

基于响应面与遗传算法的柴油机喷射参数优化

为解决燃油喷射系统参数优化中高效寻求全局最优解问题,综合响应面设计和遗传算法的优点和不足,采用多项式响应面模型代替原始遗传算法中计算量庞大的目标特性分析模型,建立了多项式响应面模型和遗传算法相结合的参数优化方法。结合非线性规划的凸性分析证明了遗传算法在预定优化区间内全局最优解的唯一性。对优化匹配后的喷射参数进行了模拟计算,结果表明:优化后柴油机油耗降低了1.96g/(kW·h),功率上升了0.99%,排气温度降低了21.86℃。表明该方法具有简单可靠、优化效率高等特点。     

求解CVRP问题的一种改进启发式蚁群算法

针对蚁群算法求解CVRP问题时收敛速度慢、求解质量不高的缺点,提出了一种改进启发式蚁群算法。该算法借鉴蚁群系统和基于排列的蚂蚁系统的优点设计信息素更新策略,既加强了对每次迭代最好解的利用,又避免了陷入局部最优;按一定比例使用基本方法和基于PFIH方法构造路径,扩大了算法的搜索空间;采用一种混合局部搜索算子,增强了算法局部寻优能力。实验结果表明,改进启发式蚁群算法可以大幅度减少车辆运行成本,具有较快的收敛速度。     

改进遗传算法求解电力网攻击无人机分队任务分配

遗传算法因其出色的寻优能力,自提出后就被广泛用于工程技术上的最优化问题求解。根据电力网攻击无人机分队任务分配的实际需要,提出基于遗传算法思想的解决方案,并在原算法基础上,采用种群分组进化的策略进行改进。详细介绍算法的基本原理和仿真步骤,再举出实际算例进行仿真,实验结果证明算法的改进取得了良好效果。     

A learning tabu search for a truck allocation problem with linear and nonlinear cost components

The two‐level problem studied in this article consists of optimizing the refueling costs of a fleet of locomotives over a railway network. The goal consists of determining: (1) the number of refueling trucks contracted for each yard (truck assignment problem denoted TAP) and (2) the refueling plan of each locomotive (fuel distribution problem denoted FDP). As the FDP can be solved efficiently with existing methods, the focus is put on the TAP only. In a first version of the problem (denoted (P1)), various linear costs (e.g., fuel, fixed cost associated with each refueling, weekly operating costs of trucks) have to be minimized while satisfying a set of constraints (e.g., limited capacities of the locomotives and the trucks). In contrast with the existing literature on this problem, two types of nonlinear cost components will also be considered, based on the following ideas: (1) if several trucks from the same fuel supplier are contracted for the same yard, the supplier is likely to propose discounted prices for that yard (Problem (P2)); (2) if a train stops too often on its route, a penalty is incurred, which represents the dissatisfaction of the clients (Problem (P3)). Even if exact methods based on a mixed integer linear program formulation are available for (P1), they are not appropriate anymore to tackle (P2) and (P3). Various methods are proposed for the TAP: a descent local search, a tabu search, and a learning tabu search (LTS). The latter is a new type of local search algorithm. It involves a learning process relying on a trail system, and it can be applied to any combinatorial optimization problem. Results are reported and discussed for a large set of instances (for (P1), (P2), and (P3)), and show the good performance of LTS. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. 62:32–45, 2015     

Model parameter estimation and residual life prediction for a partially observable failing system

We consider a partially observable degrading system subject to condition monitoring and random failure. The system's condition is categorized into one of three states: a healthy state, a warning state, and a failure state. Only the failure state is observable. While the system is operational, vector data that is stochastically related to the system state is obtained through condition monitoring at regular sampling epochs. The state process evolution follows a hidden semi‐Markov model (HSMM) and Erlang distribution is used for modeling the system's sojourn time in each of its operational states. The Expectation‐maximization (EM) algorithm is applied to estimate the state and observation parameters of the HSMM. Explicit formulas for several important quantities for the system residual life estimation such as the conditional reliability function and the mean residual life are derived in terms of the posterior probability that the system is in the warning state. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the applicability of the estimation procedure and failure prediction method. A comparison results with hidden Markov modeling are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 190–205, 2015     

改进人工蜂群算法的无人机航迹规划研究

如何快速地规划出满足约束条件的飞行航迹,是实现无人机自主飞行的关键。将改进的人工蜂群算法应用于求解无人机航迹规划问题,同时在人工蜂群算法的侦察阶段引入差分进化算法的思想。通过仿真实验并与标准人工蜂群算法比较,结果表明此算法能够有效加快收敛速度,提高最优航迹精度,是解决航迹规划和其他高维复杂函数优化的有效方法。     

电传动装甲车辆电源系统建模与仿真

电源系统是电传动装甲车辆的核心,对其进行建模与仿真研究具有重要意义。电源系统的非线性特性导致了建模困难、模型精度低以及模型实用性差等难题,针对不同的部件特性采取不同的方法建立其仿真模型,完成了基于模糊控制的系统多目标优化功率分配策略研究。并在此基础上进行了部件和系统两个层次的仿真试验,证明所建模型能够较好地反映电传动车辆电源系统的工作特性。     

基于磁流变液的舰载机拦阻过程模糊PID控制

针对舰载机拦阻过程的运动特性分析,建立了舰载机拦阻缓冲过程的力学模型与状态方程,通过对基于磁流变阻尼拦阻缓冲过程的分析,引入了位移和速度矢量作为磁流变缓冲拦阻控制系统的输入,完成基于模糊控制的舰载机拦阻缓冲过程控制。应用模糊PID控制器非线性拟合能力来适应舰载机着舰情况变化,并仿真验证建立的磁流变缓冲拦阻模糊PID算法具有较好的预测精度和应用范围。     

运用粒子群优化算法的平流层飞艇总体设计

平流层飞艇总重最小化能一定程度上反映总费用最低的设计目标,满足有效载荷功率需求是飞艇总体设计的出发点和落脚点。在飞艇参数建模中引入太阳电池曲面铺装模型以及昼夜能源闭环模型;以整艇重量最小为设计目标,以昼夜能源供需平衡、浮重平衡、推阻平衡三大平衡问题为约束条件,运用粒子群优化算法对飞艇的外形尺寸参数进行优化设计;分析了有效载荷功率需求和功率密度对于飞艇总体设计结果的敏感性。分析结果表明:飞艇总重随有效载荷功率线性增加;飞艇总重随有效载荷功率密度增加而迅速减小,但变化率逐渐变小,飞艇总重趋于稳定。能源系统仿真的结果表明了飞艇总体设计方法的有效性和设计结果的临界特性。